|
A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IMPACT IN THE NIGERIAN NLG INDUSTRY
By Adenikinju F. O. and S. O. Olofin, Department of Economics, University of Ibadan
ABSTRACT
A major investment effort is underway to harness the potentials of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves in the Nigerian economy. To quantify the macroeconomic impact of the huge investment project on the economy, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analytical framework is employed following Dervis, de Melo and Robinson (1982), Devarajan et al. (1994),Dorosh (1996), Iwayemi (1983) and Olofin et.al.(2003). The simulation results show that overall macroeconomic impacts of the construction phases of the investment project are quite modest. Relative to base year magnitudes, real GDP grew in a typical year by 0.71 per cent, price level rose by 1.6 per cent, imports rose by 0.19 per cent while exports rose by 28.3 per cent. Aggregate consumption rose by 3 per cent and government revenue by 2 per cent. However, as production comes on stream, these impacts rise quite significantly. In a typical year, real GDP grew by 4.27 per cent, the inflationary impact rose phenomenally to 14.8 per cent, exports rose even more dramatically by 54.3 per cent, consumption by 2.99 per cent while government revenue rose by 8.35 per cent. On the whole, the overall positive impact of the investment project tends to far outweigh its negative impacts in enhancing growth and development prospects.
Alternative Structure of the Square Root Inverse of the W Matrix in Error Component Panel Models, proposed by B.H. Baltagi and W. H. Greene
By Eugene Kouassi, West Virginia University, USA, Adama Coulibaly, University of Cocody,
Côte-d’Ivoire, and Kern O. Kymn, Department of Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown
USA
THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN EXPORTS AND GROWTH:
CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISONS BASED ON NON-STATIONARY INTERNATIONAL PANEL DATA
By Eugene Kouassi, Department of Resource Economics , West Virginia University, WV, USA,
N'Zue Felix Fofana, Department of Business and Economics , University of Cocody, Côte-d'Ivoire, and Kern O. Kymn, Division of Finance and Economics , West Virginia University, WV, USA
ABSTRACT
This study attempts to determine the causal relationships between exports and growth as well as the direction of such causality. A selected sample of developed and developing countries with annual data is used and cointegration and Granger-causality techniques are applied to bring evidence regarding this important issue. While at the individual country level, the evidence of export-led growth or growth-led export is mixed for developed as well as for developing countries; panel data results clearly support the growth-led export hypothesis for both sample of countries and reject the export-led growth hypothesis only for the developed ones. The empirical findings are robust to the presence of structural break(s) in the data.
AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF GLOBALIZATION
AND THE NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET
By N. I. Nwokoma, Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Nigeria , and
S .O. Olofin, Department of Economics, University of Ibadan , Ibadan
ABSTRACT
In the light of the current trend of globalization of the world’s economies, this paper investigates the extent to which the Nigerian stock market, particularly in the post-automation era, has been financially integrated with the stock markets of the world’s key financial centres. The existence of financial integration determines the extent to which the Nigerian capital market can offer international investors portfolio diversification benefits based on risk-return characteristics. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests, the study reveals positive signs of integration with other major stock markets. The impulse response analysis conducted indicates some lagged response to the US market relative to the other major stock markets.
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE POWER OF SOME SPECIFICATION ERROR TESTS
By Olubusoye, O.E. Olofin, S.O. Dipo Busari, Department of Econometric and Allied Research (CEAR), University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
ABSTRACT
This article compares the power of RESET, White, and Q tests in detecting specification errors arising from omitted variables, functional misspecification and contemporaneous correlation in residuals. The ten models investigated in the Monte Carlo experiments consist of one correctly specified functional form, three cases of omitted variables, two cases of autocorrelated disturbances and two cases of heteroscedastic disturbances. The experiments reveal that RESET is the most powerful test for detecting incorrect functional form. The test is robust to autocorrelation and heteroscedastic disturbances. The Q test is the most powerful in detecting autocorrelation whilst white test is used in detecting heteroscedasticity.
|
